As 2007 retreats....

As the winter lumbers along...
This year, the snow arrived on the first of December and it has been fairly cold all through the month. Here are a few snaps that I took today,

Search engine trends and stock performance

This is the kind of stuff that I usually write in my other blog.

Can Google Zeitgeist help you predict the stock market trends ? I heard about this today on Fast Money !




Given above are the following charts,
1) Google Trend chart for XBOX and Playstation searches
2) Stock Price chart for Microsoft (Left)
3) Stock Price chart for Sony Corp(Right)

The question here is whether the spikes on the trend chart have immediately preceded (at least often) spikes on the stock price chart. If yes, Is it possible to closely follow such trends in every market and make the right stock picks ?
I need to take a look at several more jagged peaks before I make up my mind on this. Anyway, the idea that search trends can be tracked to predict stock swings had never crossed my mind before. Well, long way to go :-).

Of Nukes and Mutually Assured Destruction
Yesterday, I was watching an interview with General (Retd) Shanker Roy Choudhary who was India's Army chief from 1994 to 1997. The General spoke about India's nuclear policy which was one of second strike as opposed to Pakistan's first strike and with an India focus. Well, that may sound like an effective strategy for deterrence. The General's comments were well balanced and he made no malapropos statements. But words, no matter how civilized or ominous they sound cannot substitute for proper planning.
I pass in front of the Schenectady Masonic Temple every day on my way to office. The building houses a fall out shelter, one of the several hundreds in this country. Built during the days of the cold war, such shelters would act as asylums for ordinary folks to escape from nukes and the ensuing radiation. National Geographic channel once ran a documentary on how adults and kids were taught to duck and cover in offices and schools during the cold war days when the threat of a nuclear war loomed large. The military spent millions of dollars building nuclear bunkers and also made plans to save the leadership in case of any such eventualities.
Now coming back to my earlier point - If India truly wishes to abandon the ability to strike first, it should prepare to survive the enemy's first strike. If they attack the metros and other large cities, the casualties could easily run into several millions and then comes the deaths due to radiation. Attacking major cities and vital installations has the potential to break the country's communication backbone. So the General's answers made me think..

1) Why have I never heard of any shelters being built in the major cities in India ?

2) Why is the population not taught survival strategies (At least in the major cities) ?

3 ) What if the attack is massive and it destroys our nuclear assets there by hampering our ability to launch a retaliatory attack from India ?

4) Shouldn't India have bought/built nuclear submarines capable of launching ICBMs (wonder where we are on the much vaunted "Surya") and have them scattered across the globe ? All I have heard about is a protracted tug of war for leasing the "Akula" from Russia. During the cold war, the Russians and the Americans built nuclear submarines which guaranteed them the ability to strike back.

5) Shouldn't we think of building some kind of missile defence system ? President Bush's invitation was readily shot down by our mandarins .

Well, I hope that the Indian leadership who ought to be far more intelligent, knowledgable and smarter than me, has answers to all these questions.

And above all, I hope and pray that a nuclear war always confines itself to literature and imagination. May it never happen in real life. Peace to All ! :-)

Certified Business Analysis Professional (CBAP) Examination
I have cleared the CBAP examination conducted by the International Institute of Business Analysis. I have received some mails asking me about the examination / certification after my comment on the IIBA community in orkut. So it may be worthwhile posting what I know, if it helps at least one person out there.

The CBAP examination is a test of your knowledge of common Business Analysis processes and practices. This is no rocket science and IMHO all you need to crack the exam is a week of dedicated effort ( ~ 30 hours of study ) - well, that is for a person of average retention like me. If you are smarter, the lesser hours you need to invest.

The CBAP questions are from 6 main topics,

1. Enterprise Analysis,
2. Requirements Planning and Management,
3. Requirements Elicitation,
4. Requirements Analysis and Documentation,
5. Requirements Communication,
6. Solution Assessment and Validation

A quick glance at the BABOK (Business Analysis Body of Knowledge ), would convince anyone who has spent a couple of years doing Requirements Analysis that these chapters contain processes that they follow in their day to day work. The CBAP certification is aimed at intermediate and senior Business Analysts ( you need 7500 hours of BA experience + a few other things..check the IIBA website for details. )

A couple of mails were about how I prepared for the exam. Well, this is what I did,

1. I read the BABOK cover to cover twice (300 pages of processes and practises. I had to read it twice for the ideas to percolate deep enough). As I said earlier, If you are smarter than me, you may have to read it only once.

2. CBAP exam questions/question papers are not available online and hence I bought the CBAP exam guide from B2T Training. Here is the link. It contains about 450 multiple choice questions that you can attempt after you read the BABOK.

3. A few questions ( I recall about 4 or 5) are from outside the BABOK. They may be from the PMBOK ( the one used for the PMP certification) or any of the reference books mentioned in the BABOK. I didn't spend any time reading these books - most of these just need common sense to answer. Example :
In which level of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs does Problem Solving belong ?
a) Self-actualization b)Esteem c)Belonging d) Safety

I had no idea about the 5 levels of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs when I first saw this question ( It is also not mentioned in the BABOK ). But there is a no reason to think that it would belong to Esteem, Belonging or Safety. Problem Solving and Creativity should be associated with Self- Actualization.

To cut a long story short - Read the BABOK cover to cover, take some practise tests and you should sail through. Good Luck !

This is interesting. It tells you how to charge your iPod ( or for that matter any small USB powered electronic gadget ) using,
1. An Onion
2. A Cup of Gatorade
3. A screw driver.

Boy, Renewable energy sources are certainly catching on in this country ;-).

Most of the trees have turned bald, I am a week late and the rains have played spoil sport.

FALL PICTURES :

Changed gear ..

I started writing this blog around two years ago. Septemeber 2005 saw a couple of posts and then onwards I have been regularly irregular. On a few occassions there have been a flurry of posts which was indicative of interesting happenings in my life that included travels and/or reading wonderful books. The ebb and the flow, the activities and the inactivities, the buzz and the torpor have all been there, as always in the last three decades of my life. But the last two years have helped me balance certain personal equations, fill certain voids, wipe some tears and bring about a few smiles.
I have changed the title of my blog as I wanted it to be relevant to this phase of my life ( God willing, I shall change it again few years down the line). So what is this phase ? Well, if the previous phase could have very well been called "Losing early wickets", I would call this phase "Scoring run a ball" or "Consolidating" or "Building a partnership".
Doesn't make sense ? Forget it. It makes perfect sense to those whom it should.

Trench War !

On saturday the 28th of July 2007, I led a WWI German unit towards well fortified Allied positions under heavy fire :-) . The rule set we used was Trench Wars and the Game master was Steve Robinson.

There is no major strategy that you can follow while attacking such a well entrenched enemy as shown above - just get your men across the killing field as soon as possible and use your tanks well. Tanks have to pass a "break down test" every round which requires a roll of 5 or higher using a D20. My tank made no more than 3 moves and before it could recover, it was destroyed by artillery fire. A similar game was played the day before and the Germans were completely wiped out before a single soul could reach the trenches. Our fate wasn't that bad. We took around 80 % casualties getting to the trenches ( A blood bath was predicted by Steve, given the fact that the attackers had no air support or cover. ) A great amount of luck is involved when you rush towards the enemy under relentless machine gun fire and artillery bombardment. There were 10 German units in all and only two tanks found their burial ground across the trenches, the remaining 8 were busted well before they could reach anywhere close. With the tanks destroyed, the attackers had to rush towards the enemy to avoid being sitting ducks. Artillery fire aimed at the defenders needed to land inside the trench to kill the enemy (Dice are rolled to check for Scatter and hitting soldiers inside the trench wasn't as easy as killing them in the open.)

I did the best I could - Kept my troops dispersed while advancing, moved my tank as fast as possible with my Infantry under its cover (but there was no escape from the enemy artillery), with the tank gone I moved my men to the trenches as fast as possible (Retreat was not an option) . I could get my flame throwers up to the trenches, but were destroyed before they could use their weapon. Braving the enemy barrage, a couple of my soldiers entered the trenches only to die at the hands of the enemy trench fighters.

How would I play it next time?? ... Hmmmm.....Not sure how I can do it without air support. But if air support were available, I would try softening the enemy with aerial bombardment while my troops dash across the killing field.

Miniature Painting !

I thought my wife would feel bored like hell while I was playing at Historicon, but it turned out otherwise. She had accompanied me as a non playing family member and spent her time taking photos and learning minature painting. She joined the painting sessions and came out with these figures shown below. She has also offered to paint any figure that I ever purchase :-)

Battle of Longewala, 5 Dec 1971 (Played at the Historicon, 27th July 2007)

I played on the Indian side at Game Master Dan McDonagh's table, where we re-created the Battle of Longewala, which saw the clash between the Indian and Pakistani forces at the border post of Longewala in Rajasthan, India. The formidable Pakistani force comprised of 65 tanks (T-59s and Shermans), Field guns and mounted Infantry against entrenched Indians who had nothing but mortars and recoiless rifles. Later in the game, the heavily out-numbered Indians also received support from their centurion tanks and mech infantry.

The major difference between the real battle and this game was the Pakistani Airforce. In the real battle the Pakistani tanks were laid to waste by the Indian Airforce. In our game both sides had air support. There were plenty of dog fights and loss of aircrafts. I wasn't too lucky with my fighters which required a roll of 1 using a D10 to score a hit.

"Ground War" is a simple rule set (I believe it was designed by Dan himself), easy to understand and with very few complications. What I did not particularly like was the treatment of ambushes - they were all put on the table right from the beginning and hence the enemy clearly knew which route to avoid. The justification for this treatment was the presence of surveillance aircrafts which could give advance warning to the attackers- I somehow couldn't accept that. Hence, with the enemy clearly avoiding the ambushes and tank traps right from the offset, the Indians were forced to fall back and fight for their lives till their centurion tanks and armoured carriers arrived.

The battle ended in a draw with both sides failing to accomplish their objectives in the given time. The Pakistanis failed to cut a wide (2 ft on the table) secure path through the Indian side and the Indians failed to drive the Pakistanis back.

All said and done, it gives me goose bumps to think of the Indian Soldiers who fought that decisive battle. Heavily out-numbered and without enough resources to thwart a tank attack of such proportions, they managed to hold on till the fighters arrived at dawn. The result which in my opinion may have had a lot to do with Pakistani stupidity and incompetence, takes nothing away from those jawans who stood their ground. Hats off to Major Chandpuri !!

On a lighter note, I should have prepared for the battle by watching J.P. Dutta's film - Border. It may have given me a lot of ideas like engaging my enemy commander in a verbal duel before the battle or asking my soldiers to walk towards the Pakistani tanks with anti-tank mines in their hands and thereby forcing them to retreat. Bollywood ! S I G H !!!

Tomorrow, I shall post a write up on the WWI game that I played the next day.

Back from Historicon !! I played two games - the 1971 "Battle of Longewala" using the "Groundwar" rules and a WWI German offense on entrenched Allies. Shall post a write up along with snaps in a day or two.

Here are a few snaps.

Historicon 2007 !!
Packed and all set. Heading for Historicon in a few hours :-)

:-O : With the Prince of darkness ??

;-) : Yeah, Right !!

Beside the George Washington memorial.

Aye Captain !! I am at the wheel, seated is Mahesh and the guy in black is Chindu.

This was a dream come true - Lake George, NY, where I got a chance to drive a speed boat. The experience of the cold wind brushing you wildly and the leaps from one wave crest to another is incomparable. This is far more exciting than hitting 100 mph on an open highway !!

Fermat's Last Theorem
This is amazing.
Andrew Wiles proceeded to solve Fermat's last theorem (For n>2, the equation a^n + b^n = c^n has no solutions for non zero a,b and c) by proving Taniyama - Shimura Conjecture. Does it not sound incredible that a man who lived about 400 years ago could come up with a different solution, which even the greatest mathematicians of our time have not been able to reproduce ? It speaks volumes of that man's incomparable genius.

A small gain at one end, a massive loss at the other !!. The foreground shows the destroyed Panzers and the British tanks responsible for it, while in the back ground the common wealth forces are being slaughtered and their machines obliterated !!

The Germans make an all out offensive on the entrenched defenders. This was the bloodiest part of the whole battle. The Common wealth forces suffered huge casualties and were wiped off the field. Needless to say, the Germans too paid a heavy price.

The Panzers under fire !! Even after destroying a couple of Panzers through a successful ambush and suppressing yet another, the British tanks failed to carry the momentum forward. The Germans wiped the Common wealth forces off the field at the other end of the battlefield. The success that you see above was fleeting.

Ambushed !! The Panzers run into well concealed British Cruisers as they make their way around a dilapidated building.

A burning Panzer, after it took a hit on its flank.

Germans vehicles getting toasted by the well entrenched Common Weath forces, as they try to push uphill. Capturing this hill was one of the key German objectives.

The "Road To Kozani" - April 13, 1941 ( Wars in Greece )

On April 13th, 1941 the German 9th Panzer division - 33rd Panzer regiment entered Ptolmais. As the Germans began to push out of Ptolmais, they had to move through a hostile territory consisting of Swamps, Anti Tank ditches and rough terrain. While under the constant barrage of Artillery and anti tank fire, the German forces moved slowly through the swamp and were able to flank the Common wealth forces. The Panzers were then engaged by the tanks of the 3rd Royal Tank Regiment and elements of the 19th Australian Infantry brigade.

The Germans were finally successful in inflicting heavy losses on the Common Wealth force and also driving them off the field. The battle was bloody and the Germans lost several lives, tanks and support vehicles.

Game-a-thon @ SWA - 23rd June 2007

I had the chance to watch an amazing WWII game using "Battlefront" rules today. There was a big crowd at the table and hence I couldn't play, nor was I familiar with this rule set. So I spent my time watching the game and trying to learn the rules. Anyway, Steve and Pete have offered me a place on one of the teams in an upcoming game and also at Historicon , where they are planning to conduct a few games.

In the afternoon session, I played Junta and managed to finish second with a decent swiss bank balance. It is a game that takes you through the political and military life in a typical banana republic, where Coups, Intrigues and Assassinations and part of everyday life.

We played Cities and Knights of Catan at the SWA yesterday. Got back home after midnight to get some quick sleep before rushing to office on Sunday morning, as my project was going Live. SWA is conducting Game-a-thon next Saturday. This is the line up of Games,

Morning Session ( 11am - 4pm )
FCS Dungeons & Dragons - "Ambush at Gelding Glade" (Chris Ford)
Dawn RPG - "Under Lock and Key" (Dennis Perlstein)
Battlefront Minis - "Clash of Armor" (Steve Keyer)
Army of Ireland - 1866 Battle of Ridgeway (Dave Cuatt)
1830-Railroads and Robber Barons - Railroading...Tresham Style (Eric Paperman)

Evening Session ( 5pm - 10pm+ )
Seventh Sea RPG - "Elizabethan England" (Charles Moorehouse)
Galactic Destiny - Intergalactic Intrigue (Mike Haggett)
Junta - Political Hijinks (Peter Landry) Settlers of Catan - Cities and Knights Expansion (Daryl Kimmel)

For more details, go here.

Obsolescence-o-phobia !!

I have read somewhere that English gains about six and loses about four words a year. So if anybody is into the art/profession of coining new words, please create one for the "fear of the light speed obsolescence of gizmos". I suffer from it. For well over a year I have been vacillating about buying a camcorder and everytime I hear someone say that their gadget now costs half of what they had originally spent on it and that better and far more capable devices are available now, my heart sinks.

Anyway, a couple of gadgets have finally made their way into my life recently. After being blown away by the GPS I had on a car that I rented to travel to Washington DC, I decided to buy one. I am sure I would have lost my way and wandered around in the night if I had relied on my printouts from Mapquest alone. So I finally bought the "Garmin Street Pilot i3". To put it simply -"Its a great invention". StreetPilot i3 offers me everything I need for my peregrinations - A robust navigation system with good signal strength, Automatic routing, Voice guidance with turn-by-turn directions , address lookup and 2D/ 3D maps. It has 32K-colour display and mounts perfectly on my wind shield. This particular model has been discontinued but I got a a very good deal and hence went for it, inspite of gravitating towards the c330 model.

The next one to walk the ramp and catch my attention was the ubiquitous Ipod. I had no plans of buying one till I saw an offer on Amazon where the 4GB nano was being offered for $149 (the original market price being $199). I have loaded a couple of audio books and some music that I got from the Schenectady Public Library yesterday.

The third one is a real life saver. With my laptop having crashed twice already in the last one year, I needed to take periodic backups of my data. I hated storing them on multiple DVDs and therefore went for a portable hard drive. Now, this baby is unbelievebly small for its capacity. It fits into the palm of my hand, weights roughly 100 grams but stores a whopping 120 GB. I am certain that the days of Tera and Peta byte storage are not far away. The Blue Ray disk has not yet reached many hands and it has already been overtaken by holographic storage.

Wonder how many more new technologies would become obsolete even before they hit the market !

Quite a Sight !!!


I have read about mythological beings capable of walking on water. May be this is the closest i can get to see one. That guy in the picture is standing on top of what is a river during the warmer days of the year. I watched him dismount from his car, walk on the frozen river for quite a distance, drill a hole in the ice and fish nonchalantly.